StatSheet Projects Saint Mary's as NCAA Tournament Nine Seed: 02/16/2012

Filed under StatSeed Update on February 16th, 2012
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StatSeed is StatSheet's postseason projections for all of Division I, including the NCAA Tournament, National Invitation Tournament (NIT), College Basketball Invitational (CBI), and the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT). Read more about how StatSeed is calculated.

StatSheet is projecting Saint Mary's to make the NCAA Tournament as a nine seed. The Gaels are, at this point, on track for an automatic bid, but they won't need to win their conference tournament as they're the #21 team in the AP Poll and sit at #25 in the StatSheet StatRank. They have a 23-4 overall record and a 12-2 record in the West Coast.

During its last four games, Saint Mary's registered wins against Santa Clara and San Diego but also suffered a loss to AP #24 Gonzaga and a bad loss to RPI #107 Loyola Marymount.

Saint Mary's is decent against top competition, with a 6-3 record against the RPI Top 100 that includes a 3-2 record against the RPI Top 50 but a 1-2 record against AP ranked teams. The Gaels have three quality wins including RPI #49 Brigham Young (2 wins) and AP #24 Gonzaga They have a single bad loss against RPI #107 Loyola Marymount.

The last four teams into the NCAA Tournament with at-large bids are Kansas State (17-8, 6-7 Big 12, StatRank #58), Illinois (16-10, 5-8 Big Ten, StatRank #54), NC State (18-7, 7-3 ACC, StatRank #49), and South Florida (16-10, 9-4 Big East, StatRank #57).

The first four teams out are LSU (15-10, 5-6 SEC, StatRank #78), Minnesota (17-9, 5-8 Big Ten, StatRank #70), St. Joseph's (PA) (17-10, 7-5 A-10, StatRank #46), and Washington (17-8, 10-3 Pac 12, StatRank #69).

The next four out are Arkansas (17-9, 5-6 SEC, StatRank #71), Brigham Young (21-6, 9-3 West Coast, StatRank #48), Colorado (17-8, 9-4 Pac 12, StatRank #70), and Oregon (18-7, 9-4 Pac 12, StatRank #69).

Regional 1
#1Duke
#2Michigan State
#3Baylor
#4Florida
#5Connecticut
#6Notre Dame
#7Alabama
#8California
#9Iowa State
#10Murray State
#11Colorado State
#12Illinois
#13Harvard
#14Akron
#15Belmont
#16Long Island
#17MVSU
Regional 2
#1Kansas
#2Missouri
#3Georgetown
#4Michigan
#5Florida State
#6San Diego State
#7Memphis
#8Gonzaga
#9Miami (FL)
#10New Mexico
#11Creighton
#12Ole Miss
#13Kansas State
#14Iona
#15Bucknell
#16Texas-Arlington
#17UNCA
Regional 3
#1Kentucky
#2North Carolina
#3Marquette
#4UNLV
#5Indiana
#6Temple
#7Seton Hall
#8Saint Louis
#9Saint Mary's
#10Northwestern
#11Mississippi State
#12NC State
#13Long Beach State
#14Nevada
#15Davidson
#16Valparaiso
#17Savannah State
Regional 4
#1Syracuse
#2Ohio State
#3Southern Miss
#4Wisconsin
#5Louisville
#6Vanderbilt
#7Virginia
#8West Virginia
#9Wichita State
#10Texas
#11Purdue
#12South Florida
#13MTSU
#14Oral Roberts
#15George Mason
#16Weber State
#17Vermont

NCAA Tourney Projections by Conference


Conf
NCAA
Teams
Conf
Teams
Pct in
NCAA
Big East9 1656.2%
Big Ten8 1266.7%
Big 126 1060.0%
ACC6 1250.0%
SEC6 1250.0%
Mountain West4 850.0%
West Coast2 922.2%
Missouri Valley2 1020.0%
A-102 1414.3%
C-USA2 1216.7%
Southland1 128.3%
MEAC1 137.7%
Big South1 119.1%
Sun Belt1 128.3%
Horizon1 1010.0%
Pac 121 128.3%
Patriot1 812.5%
WAC1 812.5%
America East1 911.1%
SWAC1 1010.0%
Ivy League1 812.5%
Atlantic Sun1 1010.0%
Summit League1 1010.0%
Big Sky1 911.1%
CAA1 128.3%
Ohio Valley1 119.1%
MAC1 128.3%
MAAC1 1010.0%
SoCon1 128.3%
NEC1 128.3%
Big West1 911.1%

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West Coast Standings

OverallConf
 1Saint Mary's 27-6 14-2
2 Gonzaga 26-7 13-3
3 Brigham Young 26-9 12-4
4 LMU 21-13 11-5
5 San Francisco 20-14 8-8
6 San Diego 13-18 7-9
7 Pepperdine 10-19 4-12
8 Portland 7-24 3-13
9 Santa Clara 8-22 0-16
Last updated: Apr 7th, 2012

2011-2012 Roster

#4 M. Dellavedova Jr G 6-4 190
#12 Jordan Giusti Fr G 6-2 185
Matt Hodgson Jr C 6-11 225
#14 Stephen Holt So G 6-4 195
#22 Rob Jones Sr F 6-6 240
#15 Beau Levesque So F 6-6 220
#2 Paul McCoy Jr G 5-11 175
#1 Jorden Page So G 6-1 180
#42 E. Petrulis Fr F 6-7 210
#5 Kyle Rowley Jr C 7-0 280
#10 Zach Sanchez Fr G 6-1 175
#11 Clint Steindl Sr F 6-7 195
#00 Brad Waldow Fr F 6-9 250
#30 K. Walker II Sr F 6-9 240
#25 Tim Williams Jr F 6-9 235
#3 Mitchell Young Jr F 6-9 235